Page 59 - European Energy Innovation - Winter 2014
P. 59
Winter 2014 European Energy Innovation 59


OEM’S WRESTLE WITH MANY to develop EV’s in the luxury 2010 and 2020. They also point
UNCERTAINTIES AROUND EV’S segment and use this learning out that, through optimised
It is more difficult for OEM’s as curve to develop lower cost energy management at battery
they have to balance the short technologies for mass market. and vehicle level, the reduction
term interests and priorities with of energy requirement for an
longer term developments of WILL EV’S BE THE BETTER CAR average car is from 20 kWh for
which electrification is one of IN THE FUTURE? 200 real world kilometres to 12
several with autonomous drive This question is key to the whole kWh. For a realistic range of 200
and connected cars as more discussion of whether we will see km this means going from a 44
likely priorities. As such it is a massive deployment of EV’s kWh battery weighing 500 kg
understandable that most OEM’s or not. Today a question like this to a 24 kWh battery of 100 kg.
are not putting their full weight requires a much more holistic These developments will continue
behind EV’s. Many OEM’s are view. The cost of purchase and after 2020. As predicted by many
bullish about the future prospects ownership must be taken into OEMs, a larger range will also
of EV’s however and are carrying account alongside the impacts to become affordable by that time.
out significant research. But when health, environment and climate.
it comes to deployment it is a Impacts on the economy and THE RAPID DEFLATION OF
different story. Again, because of import of fossil fuels have become EV COST MAY CAUSE LOWER
the current high prices, overall very important arguments as well. DEPLOYMENT RATES
limited range and long charging From this angle, the question can All stakeholders in the process
times, EV’s do need support for be answered confidently with a: are faced with the fact that EV’s
deployment. In markets where the “this is a real possibility”. will become more attractive
level of support is sufficient, and and lower costs will arrive very
for longer time frames, we do see Battery costs are going down by rapidly. For authorities, from a
that consumers are switching to 8% per year and there is a wide societal point of view, this means
EV’s. Where a few years ago price consensus that by the mid/ late that given the potentially large
competitiveness, performance 2020’s the cost of ownership benefits and high competitivity,
and appeal were unattractive for of EV’s will match those of ICE offering a temporary support
most customers, now we begin to vehicles, and the latter will get for EV technology is justified.
see a change. Well known brands more expensive due to tighter ICE technology, on the contrary,
such as BMW, Volkswagen, emission regulations worldwide. is getting more expensive due
Renault, Nissan, Mercedes are Avicenne Energy, one of the to stricter regulation especially
all selling full electric or plug-in leading global consultants on for CO2 or fuel economy
electric vehicles and the number rechargeable batteries, expects requirements. This cost increase
of models is increasing on a a battery price around 200€ per is not linear; a 90 g/km CO2
monthly basis. Tesla has shown, kWh in 2020 at pack level. The target may cost an extra 1500€
in just a few years, that electric announced Tesla Giga factory per car whereas 70 g/km could
vehicles can be attractive, with price at pack level is expected cost as much as 4000€. It means
high performance and sufficient to be below 150€ per kWh. that the EU has a powerful
range. The approach is also Robert Bosch expects a doubling mechanism to improve the
different from OEMs: start of the energy density between attractiveness of EV’s by setting a
challenging CO2 target. However
this leaves consumers with the
dilemma: do I buy now or should
I wait a few years to buy a better
EV at a lower cost. Also second
hand value may decrease rapidly.
For OEM’s one of the questions
will be whether to aspire
leadership for EV’s or to wait and
benefit from the cost reductions
which will take place. However,
these cost reductions will only
take place in full when sufficient
volumes of EV’s and batteries are
being produced.
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