Over the past decade there’s been a revolution on the supermarket shelf. Once confined largely to health food shops, save for a few options in a hidden corner of the fridge or freezer, plant-based protein substitutes have experienced a spectacular rise. There now exists a dazzling array of options, from sausages to bacon, milks to cheese.
According to the Good Food Institute Europe (GFI Europe), sales of plant-based meat, seafood and dairy across 13 key European markets rose by 6% between 2021-22. Consumers cite several reasons for ditching animal products for them, from the environmental impact and ethics of meat and dairy farming, to health.
But there’s no denying that momentum has stalled. Sales have declined since 2022, partly due to concerns over ultra-processed foods, and when New York City’s three-Michelin-starred Eleven Madison Park went fully vegan in 2021, it felt momentous. Its decision last week to reintroduce meat was equally significant – if unsurprising.
Yet proponents of a reduction in animal protein are undeterred. According to a report by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) in the Netherlands, the ratio of consumption of animal protein to plant-based protein must be flipped from 60:40 to 40:60 by 2030.
That won’t be easy. Though consumption of plant-based protein alternatives has increased dramatically in the past couple of decades, there are considerable barriers to further growth. Meat and dairy remain deeply culturally rooted.
According to Stacy Pyett, programme manager at Proteins for Life, “the most important thing is that we try and understand the gap between intention and behaviour. When we ask consumers if they want to change their diet and decrease their meat consumption, almost everyone says yes. We also see an increase in sales of meat-replacers. At the same time the meat consumption stays pretty consistent.”
Luke Byrne, innovation and sustainability director at This, a UK-based manufacturer of plant-based meats, agrees. “It’s no longer enough to simply be a plant-based option; our products must be exciting, delicious, and accessible. People choose food for joy, and we have to deliver on that emotional connection and create a desire.”
For Helen Breewood, senior market and consumer insights manager at GFI Europe, “taste, price and convenience are the main barriers preventing European consumers from eating more plant-based foods.” She adds that meat alternatives are a small fraction of the overall meat and dairy markets because they “don’t yet match conventional animal foods on these key metrics.”
Certain animal-free products are clearly entering the mainstream. NIQ data show that 46% of households in Spain, 37% in Germany and 32% in the UK bought plant-based milk at least once last year. Plant-based milk has achieved the highest market share of animal protein substitutes, reaching 9.3% of total milk sales in Spain in 2024, for example. A third of households in Germany and the UK bought plant-based meats last year, and more than a third of respondents in both countries told a survey they wanted to eat more plant-based food. But some suspect a “halo effect” (where consumers reward themselves for positive choices by splashing out on something else, for example, taking a long flight after buying energy-saving lightbulbs). Perhaps they are substituting salad, rather than meat, with meat-free burgers?
“Novel ingredients or approaches, such as fermentation-made products, must pass through a rigorous approval process that can take more than 18 months”
A key theme for many in the field over recent years has been a focus on “protein transition”, a hope to encourage the public to shift from animal products to plant-based alternatives. There are four key drivers in influencing people. The first, and most obvious, is sustainability and the need to produce food within our planetary boundaries. A 2024 review concluded that plant-based protein has a fraction of the impact of conventional meat, with up to 94% less greenhouse gas emissions and using around 90% less land and water. A further report found that switching from animal products could free up 21% of European farmland for domestic food production.
Other factors included climate resilience (increasing the range of crops eaten could help prepare against harvest failure), health (eating more plants is associated with reducing the risk of bowel cancer, improving gut health and maintaining a healthy weight among other benefits), and global equity. Currently, animal protein isn’t distributed fairly – while the West indulges, those in many low-income countries eat too little.
So what is the discerning European consumer to do? Currently, there are three main categories of product, which experts argue we should eat more of while reducing those from animal sources. The first are analogues, those that copy meat and dairy – think veggie burgers or soy milk. Then come non-analogues, such as tofu, nuts and legumes (which many people don’t even consider as “proper” protein). Finally, hybrids, which combine plants and animal-products, such as beef burgers replacing some of the meat with seaweed.
“Meat mimics, despite some of the commentary, are still the biggest segment of the market,” says Byrne, who nevertheless admits they are “in a plateau moment within the category”. For Byrne, the main plant-based area experiencing “real growth” over the past few years is tofu. “This is following the consumer demand for more familiar products that don’t necessarily mimic meat, but instead provide a versatile and healthy protein source.”
Habits won’t change automatically – often, consumers need a push. This is where supermarkets come in. Around 70% of food consumed in the Netherlands is bought from them, so they will inevitably play a crucial role in the protein transition. But is there more they could do? After conducting several interviews with supermarket bosses, researchers at WUR concluded that “the power of the livestock, meat, and dairy sectors and the strength of established food cultures make the protein transition vulnerable. Moreover, supermarkets do not see it as their primary task to change consumer behaviour, set social trends, or set standards. Therefore, the success and acceleration of the protein transition require more than just the strength of supermarkets.”
For Breewood, governments also hold the key. “Just like they’ve funded research and development for renewable energy, governments should fund open-access research into plant-based foods, to achieve their goals of boosting food security, reducing climate emissions and farming in harmony with nature.”
Robust regulation is also vital for the future of meat and dairy alternatives. Consumers can be suspicious of new products, especially given the rise of concern over UPFs. Novel ingredients or approaches, such as fermentation-made products, must pass through a rigorous approval process that can take more than 18 months. For lab-grown meat, which is not yet approved for human consumption in the EU, there are further regulatory hurdles, not to mention taste, texture and cost barriers.
“Supermarkets do not see it as their primary task to change consumer behaviour, set social trends, or set standards.”
Byrne adds that another stumbling block was the potential ban on the naming of plant-based products with their animal counterparts – for example, using the terms ‘sausages’ or ‘burgers’ for meatless versions. “The plant-based industry has rallied well throughout Europe, and this is hopefully not going to come into regulation,” says Byrne.
Ultimately, the proof is in the pudding. People will switch to vegan options, thus facilitating the protein transition, if it is easy and rewarding to do so. “Taste, familiarity and convenience are blocking large groups from choosing plant-based foods,” says Breewood. “To enable people to act on their intentions, companies need to develop tastier products, communicate nutritional benefits more clearly, and help consumers overcome their lack of familiarity with simple recipe suggestions.”
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