One year ago, COP21 Paris was being lauded for its commitment to limiting the rise in global temperatures; COP 22 Marrakech has now concluded and it too has been hailed for shifting the focus to one of implementation: indeed, ratification of the Paris Agreement has proceeded remarkably swiftly. And as part of that process, and to much fanfare, the Commission unveiled its long-awaited Winter Package on November 30th. This date surely represents only one of many landmarks in the protracted struggle to decarbonise energy and mitigate the impact of anthropogenic global warming; and the initiative should be put in some sort of context.
As the COP 21 delegates were no doubt congratulating themselves on a successful meeting and boarding their homeward flights, news was reaching us of a heatwave across the Arctic: in the depth of the Arctic Winter, temperatures above minus 2º C were being recorded. Freezing point was reached (or even exceeded) around the turn of the year, while the region has already experienced 0º C this winter, at a time when the mercury might be expected to register minus 30º C. The news from the other pole has been no less alarming: it emerged in August that a crack in the Larsen C ice shelf had grown 20% longer, threatening to calve a huge area of ice with unpredictable effects on the stability of the shelf itself. Of course, this occurred during the Antarctic Winter and it is important because of what has already happened to the Larsen B ice shelf. Clearly, short term temperature variations, such as those caused by El Niño, are implicated in these extraordinary events, but longer-term data from the NSIDC in Boulder, Colorado data present a clear warning: the extent of polar sea ice in December this year is smaller than the 1982-2010 average; smaller by an area the size of India. A suggestion is being made that as much as a third of the world’s polar bear population might disappear by 2060 because of melting Arctic sea ice. The point is that we have yet to understand the full impact upon Arctic fish stocks of the loss of the ecosystem’s apex predator – this quite apart from the unknown consequences for the climate of the difference between relatively dark-coloured seawater and relatively light-coloured ice in their absorption and reflection of solar irradiation.
Almost everything about the Commission's latest undertaking is big: even its name grew from "The Winter Package" to "New Rules for consumer centred clean energy transition". The document itself extends to over 1,000 pages and, as Vice-President Šefčovič observed at its launch, its proposals "touch upon all clean energy related sectors: research and innovation, skills, buildings, industry, transport, digital, finance to name but a few. These measures will equip all European citizens and businesses with the means to make the most of the clean energy transition." At the same time, Commissioner Arias Cañete singled out the binding 30% energy efficiency target, suggesting perhaps this might be a primary test of the new package. For, as he observed, achieving it will reduce our dependence on energy imports as well as our emissions.
The sheer size and scope of the Winter Package make it impractical to attempt an in-depth review in a single article. Several analyses, examining different perspectives, have already been forthcoming elsewhere; but it is worthwhile to attempt to identify its key themes; and perhaps discern a central message. The package of new and updated legislation includes a Regulation concerning the governance of the Energy Union; updates to three Directives (Renewable Energy (RE); Energy Efficiency (EE); and Energy Performance of Buildings, the EPBD); and a Market Design Initiative, consisting of a Directive on Common Rules for the Internal Market in Electricity and three Regulations governing Electricity Market Regulation, ACER, and Risk Preparedness.
Amongst other things, the initiative on Energy Union governance introduces a requirement for National Energy and Climate Plans, while the EE and RE Directives include new 2030 targets and a new bioenergy sustainability policy. This has been the subject of criticism for the balance struck between support for new RE versus existing fossil fuel power generation. ACER, perhaps predictably, has welcomed the increase in its scope. Elsewhere, while noting the urgency of global warming, Professor Karl-Friedrich Lenz evaluates the new 27% RE Target. The steep fall in PV pricing, he observes, should assist efforts to accelerate the growth of RE before he concludes that the new EU-wide target, which replaces targets for individual Member States, requires a little more good faith in everyone making the maximum effort. Other commentators have been somewhat less charitable, criticising the target as lacking ambition.
And here, perhaps, lies the crux of the matter. The Winter Package circumscribes an enormously complex energy sector. Almost inevitably, there is disagreement over the best way forward. The risk is that the ensuing debate - however healthy, however well-intentioned - will blunt the thrust of the initiative. Time is clearly running short: if potential salvation of the global climate lies in Energy Efficiency, then we need action. Not discussion, not even legislation.
The words to the John Mason Neale Christmas Carol reflect an act of altruism by a King who was subsequently martyred. His Saint's Day, September 28th, is an official public holiday across many European countries: our attempts to use renewable biofuels might find an extension of this modern European metaphor in the image of a poor man gathering winter fuel. But "deep and crisp and even"? We must work harder if our children are to have a chance of seeing a traditional White Christmas. And much harder still if our Grandchildren are to see one.